Week 6 2024

Quotes

Lessons & Thoughts

Macro news

Money

    

GDP

CPI

War / Immigration

FX

    

Precious metals

Crypto

Fixed income

Real estate

Equities

Valuation

SPX vs LEI

SPX average yearly gains 7.6% per annum + average 2.8% dividend

Cycle

Secular bears

18.6y cycle

4 year cycle

Equal weight divergence vs SPX 

Transport vs Industrials divergence

Breadth

Bonds vs equities

Equities vs Commodities

US vs rest

DY vs P/BV

No fear, all greed

Decenial

Margin debt

AAII bulls

Speculative

Same day options! SDOs

    

Hemline indicator

Cash holdings

After 1st rate cut

Metonic cycle forecast(s) can have biases...

9/56 cycle

Seasonality

VIX

Commodities

Themes, Sectors, Corporate news

Tech tock

IPOs

Food

Alphabet vs Meta

Defence 

In the US, defence budget going to USD 886bn from USD 856bn last year (USD 821bn base budget). Interest costs on the debt is now above.