WM 23 April 2022
Quotes Perhaps the quote, everyone has a plan until you punched someone in the mouth... Lessons & Thoughts Social Moods Cognitive biases Trading strategies Technicals: like a candle in the wind Do not trust the experts (how do I know: I am one of them) Clients Valuation and narratives: 6 degrees of separation This week saw the collapse of Netflix. The stock used to be valued at a % of total addressable market for streaming, then at 10x sales and now at 15x EBITDA (70% difference). Beyond Meat was IPOed at 10% of its TAM and now de-rating back to reality EV to % of market potential / total addressable market (TAM) EV/sales-revenues (why care about costs when its all about growth) EV to gross profit (why care about operating costs if it's scalable) EV to EBITDA (why care about capex if it is profitable) EV to EBIT (why care about interests and tax) PE or FCF (why care about debt) PBV (why care at all) Macro news Money Growth Demographics: th...