WM 16 October 2023

Quotes

Lessons & Thoughts

What did founders & CEO study?

Wars: what is it good for?

Time in the market is everything

In part because because time value of money

Systems

Ken Griffin

Ogilvy

Economy and finance are two different worlds: in finance, rising prices attract demand. In the economy, lower prices attract demand. Why? Because in economy, players are rationally looking at prices, whereas in financial markets, investors are dealing with uncertainties and herd.

EMH vs Socionomics

6 theories of herding

Socionomics can predict if incumbent president will be reelected

Socionomics suggest when financial legislation relaxed = top of markets, when financial legislation tighter

Socionomics and movies

Elliott Wave

Fibonacci

ROIC

Buy high/improving ROIC but at fair to attractive valuation

ESG

Capital raising

Simons: math, common sense and good luck

focus on time series ST/LT. Look for back tested pattern and then use kelly for sizing of bets based on probabilities. Don't run with pack. Adapt to change but stick with it to give enough time.

Winner effects

Success triggers dopamine = positive feedback loop. Increases confidence. Therefore, all winners hack their brains to transform every negatives into positives to reinforce confidence and pleasure in pain.

Macro news

Money