WM 16 September 2023

Quotes

Lessons & Thoughts

The best cure to anxieties = do something

Tips to avoid fear of doing

Another interesting thought about your future: why? because your job is taxed, your business is tax deductible

Laws

Invest for the long run: the odds are in your favour. Time in the market > timing the market

What is your chance of winning when holding for a certain period (index)?

Alpha vs market efficiency

Known what you own

Family owned

Small stocks

High quality

Buy pessimism

    

Corporate finance

Ben Graham

CANSLIM

Trading 

Gaps

Macro news

Money

Central banks hike in Europe, cut in China, pause in the US and Australia, 

GDP

CPI

Strikes in Hollywood and in Detroit 

Demographics explains reflation trend

Other long trends behind inflation? less free markets + less productivity/educational output + lobbies with no interests in getting rid of waste and political corruption

    

Chinese slow down or bust? note that this is the first recession in China since 1989! 

    

Why does China matter?

Because of its size in global trade, China does influence commodity prices and global trade balances. 

When it stimulates and print money and its GDP grows fast, it is a driver of deflation for the rest of the world

When it stimulates and its GDP declines, it is a driver of inflation for the rest of the world. How come? Because of the FX.

Look at staffing data. Use of temps and hours worked lead unemployment.

Asset allocation

FX

Precious metals

Crypto

Fixed income

Real estate

German housing

Equities

Money and stocks

Stocks vs bonds

Valuation

Gvt receipts and SPX

Correction?

Yet

Best markets = Democrat presidents and Republican Congress

VIX

Commodities

I got the power

Oil deficit

    

Uranium spikes USD 10/pound to USD 66 in 30 days. Next target: USD 200!

Copper

Lithium

Renewables

Potash

Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Sector cycle

Value over growth? Not for long

Cyclicals vs Defensives

Energy

IPOs are back: ARM gets listing at 130x and more in pipe

Two markets = mega tech and non tech

Small vs Big

Who's dominating space race?

One bull market in tech and the rest

Nvidia and Apple see signs of weakness

Instacart down

but Amazon.com is... up

 

Drones

   

Share repurchases US monsters

Beware = car crash ahead. Strike in the US to affect 45% of US carmarkers plants, just as European car makers prepare to invest invasion of Chinese EVs

Themes

Urbanisation and ageing

China