WM 15 August 2023

Quotes

Lessons & Thoughts

Philo-sophy

Gann

Elliott Waves

Stock prices

Philip Fischer

Great stocks

Investing rules

Timing is not everything, time in is everything

Saving vs investing

What does it take to make USD 100bn. Say you start working at 20 and invest USD 10K. That's 58% CAGR til you're 60 net of tax!, 40% til you're 70 and 36% til you're 80 and 30% CAGR til you're 90 and 26% CAGR til you're 100 (assuming you get there)

Macro news

Money (USA)

Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon

Central banks balance sheets

Money (in Europe)

Money (in China)

Chinese GDP

Governments deficit: see US

GDP

CPI

Cyclical disinflation

Generational reflation

I want to be a UPS driver

Politics

Yield curve

FX

EMs have yet to reflect recent DXY weakness

Same is true for precious metals & Bitcoin. What's the deal?

Perhaps because money is being sucked by treasury issuance

Fixed income

Real estate

Equities

Correction due

Aligator

Sales & GDP

Profits & Payroll: people and profits don't mix well

Earnings

Earnings vs valuation

Valuation

Long term return

10Y rolling returns

Stocks above 50D mavs

...and above 200d MAV

Concentration

Option flows

Cash

Sentiment

AAII

Bespoke

Buybacks