WM 1 July 2023

Quotes

Lessons & Thoughts

Black hole & White holes

In general relativity, a white hole is a hypothetical region of spacetime and singularity that cannot be entered from the outside, although energy-matter, light and information can escape from it. In this sense, it is the reverse of a black hole, from which energy-matter, light and information cannot escape.

3 pieces of advice

Risk vs Uncertainty

    

Invest in what you know, but other people don't

E-go can energize you, but ego can be the ennemy

Defence mechanisms

Motivational 

The cure of anything is salt water

Personal quadrant

8 types who have successful careers

The power of compounding and multiplier effects

X,Y and Z

If "No man is an island", what about that?

 Sustainable high ROIC + reinvestment of ROIC into growth

Hype and emotional cycles

Risk management rules

When to sell a winner? Never or

Wolf waves

Wyckoff

    

Fibonacci

Vargas' box theory

Macro news

Money

GDP

Consumer confidence

Exports

Construction

Shipments & capacity utilisation

Unemployment: initial claims

Working hours and salaries

Consumer debt & government debt

CPI

    

Yield curve

Long term asset performance

FX

Weak dollar is bullish for risk assets

Precious metals

Crypto

Fixed income

Real estate

Equities

Bear market rally or more simply, a secular bull market

Not a bear market

    

Odds of bears are small

AAII

Seasonality

VIX

Commodities

Short term down (recession). But soon beginning of a new supercycle...

US pumping oil

Copper ready to take off (after recession)

Platinum/Palladium: uniquely positionned for supply squeeze

Aluminium

Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Themes

Small vs Big caps

Growth > Value still (NB: value does well in period of inflation => disinflation favours growth stocks)

Innovations

Britain after Brexit

Canada

EMs looking cheap

Cybersecurity

Defence stocks vs Ukraine

Staples vs Discretionary = Inflation vs Early Cyclical recovery

Banks

IT capex

Apps

Watches

When you know you're a man, 80-90% of males will have prostate cancers eventually. Who's benefiting?

Adobe's USD 20bn acquisition

Will Nvidia's bubble burst? See how Cisco share price behaved after burst of the last internet bubble

Shorts