WM 23 April 2023

Quotes

Invest then investigate, to avoid paralysis by analysis.

From to

Lessons & Thoughts

Perception and reality

Narratives

Learn from mistakes

How stress affects your body

Success

Love is in the air

Technicals

Volume

Bearish pattern

Wisdom of the trees: Sequoia tree celebrates its 2500th birthday!

Nutrient-dense

Metclaf law and the value of networks

Millionaires

How to become rich (trading)

Rules of trading

Simple

Wall Street

Love is in the air

Purgatory

Macro news

US M2

China credit

Money market

Debt ceiling

Debt cycle

GDP

Sociodemographics

Presidential cycles

GDP

Money and GDP

Philly's Fed Manufacturing

Conference Board US consumer confidence

LEI

Europe PMI

Europe consumer confidence and recessions

German consumer confidence

UK retail sales

Inventories

Initial job claims

All indicators

Capacity

Margin vs labour costs

NDR says recession soon

NY recession probability

Cyclical sectors

CPI

Yield curve

Asset allocation

Soon the Fed will ease (2Y yield falling) while debt ceiling shows that the US government won't have the flexibility to pursue its fiscal largesse for too long even if election 2024 looms. This is bearish for the US dollar (which was strong on tightening + fiscal stimulus cycle). This is happening just as a block of commodity rich countries and China (their largest trade partner) are talking about de-dollarisation.

HKD

NOK

Precious metals
If investors are bearish on the US dollar and start targeting rates that fall below nominal GDP or getting increasingly negative in nominal term, then gold should be a good alternative.

Gold miners not so much

Crypto

Fixed income

Real estate

Equities

Liquidity drives markets

How the bears feel right now

SPX: moment of truth

Warning signs

Bad breadth
New highs/new lows declining

Bear markets start with a steepening of the curve and Fed cuts

Earnings

Valuation

% stocks outperforming the index

Total world equity index VT and on balance volume
% above 200D mav
QQQ/NYSE volume ratio

Bull vs Bear

NYSE volume

Drawdowns

Divergences

NAAIM exposure

Hedge fund exposure

SPX vs New highs/lows

Highs-Lows

QQQ vs equal weight QQQ = megacaps led this rally

Dow/Gold

Coppock

Net profit margin
Advance / Decline

Margin debt

Buy 30-40% of the time, Hold 30-40% of time, Sell 30% of the time

Hedge funds positioning

Seasonality

VIX

Commodities

Breakout as South African crisis threatens global supply
Lithium