WM 21 January 2023

Quotes





Lessons & Thoughts

No good buys, only good sells


Thoughts







Now vs then: no substitute for experience



Old school = defence 10x more important than offense




Generational divide



Value creation matrix
   





10 attributes of great fundamental investors
Cyclicals





Buy and hold mantra



Top hedge fund managers


Bluecrest





Rennaissance Tech


Trend following
Marty Schweig

Technical patterns




Examples

Example


Example
Example



Bull & Bear traps







Retracements



After "return to normal", I expect fear










Psycho tricks





Complex vs Simple






























Tactical


Diversification vs concentration















Macro news

Money







Society

Co2/capita

Life expectancy


Spending by generation



1980s vs 2020s


Embrace culture 2022?


Risks

Predictions


GDP




   




    


   

















Demographics: China pop decline for the first time




Politics: new speaker



Personal savings







Bear markets slide a slope of HOPE





CPI





















Yield curve








Asset allocation










FX












Precious metals














    










Bitcoin

















    


















Fixed income


























Real estate














    










What about Metaverse "landbank"



Equities
Liquidity driver



Technicals 1, fundamentals 0




US indices testing




































Bubble?





SPX real return
Recession or no recession that is the question









European index


Cross roads



Value matters








Earnings expectations are still too high












Mind the gap




Moving balance indicator



Investor vs economic sentiment
Sentiment and positioning
Panic/Euphoria




Put / Call





Sentiment vs positioning




AAII
Fund flows EM




Trifecta





Smart vs Dumb money


Fintwit


10D breadth




CNN fear & greed: neutral




SPX vs HY

above 200d









McLellan accumulation




Breadth thrust
Worst drawdowns

    




Insider

Greed & Fear



L/S leverage








Trader's Almanach
Seasonality





Vol
















Commodities



Oil

Metals
















Climate













ChatGPT






Fish farming vs fisheries




Transport vs electricity C02












Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Sectors


US vs rest




Growth vs value


Growth themes and QQQ





Tech








Energy sector




Unprofitable
Costs










Greatest acquisitions of all time






US and the rest



    

Semi value chain











Will Apple discover the law of gravity

EV theme


Airlines


US Restaurants = roll out stories

What does Caterpillar say about the economy?

Costs



The age of fraud



Good businesses, a list











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