Quotes
It's nice to be important, but it's more important to be nice.
Alina Frieske
Lessons & Thoughts
Education vs Imagination
Waves
Billionaires
Soros on work: it's not the quantity but the quality. I.e. payback for the amount you put
The rule of 85% states that if you aim for less your state of mind will be more relaxed and confident and you will be performing better therefore achieving more. It 's not how hard you try, it 's how easy you try
Keep it simple
Opinion: make it your own
Avoid insight biases and focus on the future
Bruce Kovner is the right wing version of George Soros and one of the greatest traders of his generation. The founder of Caxton came to fame as a commodity trader working along Market Wizards' legend Michael Marcus. His six principles for success are all about the importance of preparation and mindset
The less you see doctors, the better you are
I hold the power to design the life I want. How the placebo/mind can affect the body and metabolism/ageing process, which is a simple function of protein + hormones + ATP (the energy currency of the cell or oxygen molecular antenna)
Markets
Macro news
Does it matter? Two views: economic views are useless so buy and hold on to great companies vs focus on money flows and shift to the asset classes best suited to the liquidity cycle
So buy good companies for the long term?
English language rules because it is simple
Asset classes
Money & Credit cycle
GDP
Real GDP per capita
Global demographic growth
Birth rate
ISM & fed fund rates
PMI
The most anticipated recession ever: "when all the experts agree something else tends to happen" (Bob Farrell)
Bad news is good news
Sweden
Wages
Supply chains
Personal savings
Personal consumption
Lower activity= lower prices
CPI
Yield curve
No more war?
FX
Dollar weakness is bullish
When cash is trash literally (eg Venezuela)
Precious metals
Silver lining
Crypto
Fixed Income
Deleveraging: from USD 300tn to USD 290tn...
Recessions are good for gvt bonds: when money no longer used in the real economy, it needs to find a home
Real estate
Equities
Long bull/bear market cycles
Crunch time: bear market rally or break out?
The bull case, long live the bull case?
End of inflation = good for stocks
S&P above 200D MAV!
News lows < New highs?
Breadth
ISM & bears
EPS
Yet inflation peak = major bottoms
Valuation
The bottom range: 3000-4000Sentiment
Hedgies
AAII
Seasonality
V for victory? No V for Volatility
CommoditiesA recession is negative to commodities. Yet, supply side is not sorted and what if China reopens?
Is coffee heralding drop in employment?
Themes, Sectors & Corporate news
Sectors
Small caps> Big cap as liquidity premium is good to buy if risk assets recover
Growth vs Value
YOY changes QQQ-DowJones
Financials boosted by rates
Not all banks are created equal
Dollar weakness: sell pharma, buy EMs
Who wants to buy an electric car now? Saving the planet is harder than I thought.
Another misallocation of resources?
Food value chain = 10% of global GDP
Shrinkflation
Chocolate
Cloud
Luxury
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