Quotes
Lessons & thoughts
Linde effect
Goblin mode
Goblin mode : indulging in lazy or selfish habits
Richest people
Capital allocation
Von Mises
Sentiment
Macro news
Money
GDP
Demographics
China overwhelmed as 250m people got Covid in a month!
China
Pro and anti vax debate highlights temptation to the extremes. Why fear the unvaccinated if you are vaccinated is beyond me. Moreover, the side effects of vaccination are now better known. When "science" is used as a religion and doubt is no longer tolerated, we are heading for authoritarian regimes. The sad irony of it it all, is that it now advocated by liberal champions...
Confidence
Inflation
Yield curve
Asset allocation: favour real assets over financial assets
FX
DXY
Historic move in JPY
EURUSD
Precious metals & Crypto
Fixed income
New secular bear market in bonds
Long term treasuries testing resistance
Real estate
The bubble is bursting. Prices are inflated and no longer affordable as interest rates have shot up. The downside is big, but crash will only happen when forced sellers will accept the ask prices that are reflecting the higher costs of ownership.
it is now cheaper to rent
housebuilders see collapse of demand
they are pessimistic
housing starts now in free flall
And so are prices
housing activity is set to weaken into 2023
In China, mortgage rates are falling to calm down fears of property crash
Equities
December
LEI bottom will be SPX bottom
Where? GDP/MV as a gauge
Trucks & S&P500
S&P 500 margin
4year cycle 2018, 2022, 2026
McLellan
50D MAV crosses
% below 50d mav and 200d mav
Corrections and bear markets
Equity value
Lead indicators diffusion model
SPX and hikes
Cycle
QQQ still overvalued
EPS
Who owns US equities?
Equity allocation still too high
Insiders
Put/call ratio
Not fearful enough?
Santa Klaus rally
VIX
Commodities
Alternatives
Themes, Sectors & Corporate news
Sectors
Streaming share of US TV
Agri Food = 10% of the world economy, 27% of the labour force
Caterpillar is the ultimate cyclical cap goods stocks is trying to tell us something?
Tesla is looking vulnerable still
Remember the "Just Do It". The advert helped Nike grow from USD 1bn of sales to 9bn between 1988 and 1998.
Online retailing
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