WM 31 October 2022

Quotes

What/who surrounds you matters

Bubbles

Lessons & thoughts

High Performers by Jack Humphrey: take responsibility, get motivated, manage their emotions, play to their strengths, get flexible, have high standards. 

Focus on what you love to do, you're good at, people need and you can get paid for: find your Ikigai

Put the odds in your favour

Other words of wisdoms from Buffet & Munger

Why growth is always overrated and why quality of growth matters more than the quantity: example of China

    

Always remember that the market invests in the future

Memory: sleep + visualise +make connections (stories/metaphores-as many connections as possible) + learn/practice/repeat +  chunkling (piece individual pieces into larger unit)

The Intelligent Investor

Avoid the hot stocks

Charts

IBD volume

Chart

Consistency

Macro news

Money

Deficit and debt burden will hurt

Geopolitics

GDP

Inflation a monetary phenomenon

Income disparity

    

CPI will fall but what about jobs

Asset classes

FX

    

Yen

Precious metals

Crypto

Stock to flow model

Bitcoin Momentum oscillator is turning 

Seasonal Bitcoin?

Fixed income

Negative real returns, so what do you expect?

TLT

Supply & Demand

Japan

TIPs

Corporate debt duration

Bond liquidity index

Bond buying

HY

Real estate

Mortgage rates >7%

Homebuilders

Un affordable

No more buyers

Real estate investments down, ISM to follow

New supply of homes = unemployment

Equities

It was a good month

The bull market is dead

Analogs

Rally now

Perspective

Drivers of last bull

PE

SPX vs Inverted Yield curves

ERP

Buffet indicator

SPX and Fed balance sheet

Earnings

The real drag

Dollar vs SPX

McLellan

MACD

Leveraged ETF

% down days over 12m

Options

Small traders Put/Call

Barron's Bears

Smart Money confidence

Breadth

High/Lows

Ned Davis' Thrust Indicator

RSI divergence

%>10D

%> 20D

% of 50d avg

52W high%

Oscillator

Depth

As US households have overbought equities..

SPX has outpaced earnings

TRIN

Buy pessimism

AAII bull / bear

SPX vs bullish AAII

Insiders buying

 

Short Interests

SPX & CEO confidence

Gama

Presidential cycle

    

Buy for the long term, now

Exposure

Seasonality

Intra group

Monthly returns

This October

Commodities

Brazil

Freight

Surprised that diesel falls?

Oil

Copper 

Industrial metals

Iron ore and the rest

Macro hedge funds outperform HFRX index

Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Earnings this week

So far

Earnings

The Apple did not fall

It's cloud peers did

Youtube disappointed

So did Meta as online ads dipped and investments in Metaverse ballooned for little traction so far (throwing good money after bad?)

The two payments networks

Monopolies investments