WM 24 September 2022

Quotes

Lessons & Thoughts

If you don't have discipline, you have no method

Risk is the price you pay for opportunity

A time for the stoics

Three causes of war: pride, money/resources, power

Small companies focus on growth and innovation, big companies focus on risk management

Traders

3 types of traders

First you lose money. Second you learn not to lose. Third you make money.

1 fractal to rule them all

Bullish vs bearish patterns

Outside vs Inside view

ROIC matters... why are you surprised when negative yields give you negative returns?

Dalio

Human ecostystem

Keep on learning

Macro news

Politics > economics right now

Putin is playing his survival and cannot stop now. XijinPin has a problem domestically and must continue too. Meanwhile in Europe, central banks are fighting inflation just as governments giving money they don't have to their citizens (student loans in the US, tax cuts in Britain and energy subsidies elsewhere, while not addressing the core supply-side problems or letting the market do its job as in energy, where the misallocation of resources is for everyone to see and pay the price for).

Start with Y

Two different Americas illustrated by one election. Who would you vote for?

History matrix is a a fight between chaos and order. Extreme chaos is anarchy. Extreme order is the nastiest form of authoritarian regime where individual rights are repressed. The story of the last four hundred years is the rise of individualism, the right to have and change opinion. Pushed to the extreme, individual freedom is a precarious and disloyal world of overemphasis of the me and instant gratification etc. The way the rise of individualism expressed itself is through the rise of democracies and market led economies, embodied by the success of Western liberal models like the US. Yet, we now see this order in retreat and being challenged from inside. The intenal conflict stems from contradiction between the needs of local democracies and of global markets, the later demanding ever lower costs, resources and taxes and the former ever more social welfare and individual justice and protection against the ills of a global market place that has tended to favour authoritarian regimes such as Russia, China or Saudi Arabia...

Demographics is destiny. If so, Asia is not the future of the world (with the exception perhaps of India and the ASEAN region). Africa on the other hand will see its population double to 2bn within the next 20 years and be the fastest and strategically most relevant region.

Don't fight the mistake prone Fed