WM 9 July 2022

 Quotes

"if, if, if, does not exist" Rafa Nadal

Lessons & Thoughts

Share price

Technical patterns

Resistance

Stan Weinstein

Other lessons

Trading

Extract of How I trade and Invest

Don't think you're smarter than the rest of us

Bullwhip effect

How long does it take recover?

Bubbles

Soros on trading: I am an insecurity analyst

Risk your profit, not your principal

Pyramid your profits or bet big when market tells you you're right and cut your loss short. Risk your profit, not your capital.

The brain

The laws of politics: the winner's curse

Macro news

Money

Money and growth

GDP

   

    

Inflation to recede

Late cycle investing

Precious metals

Crypto

FX

x

EURUSD

Why would the euro collapse?

+ real rate going more negative as ECB slow to react due to Italian debt

Even the Swiss experience inflation!

Fixed income

Buy bonds

Unless you believe oil price has further to go

Real estate

Equities

Bear 

ISM and stock market

The trend is not your friend, until it changes

Equity value

Long term secular bull/bear markets

Breadth

Earnings

Allocation

VIX

Commodities

The last shoe to drop

LT trade

It takes 2 to make a market

Dr Copper feeling sick

Mineral energy intensity

Agri commodities

Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Banks and Mining going hand in hand?

Semi

Autos

Travel post Covid recovery > GDP concerns?

•15x EBITDA pivot ratio for asset light hotel brands. Every 1% GDP = 3% RevPar. Currently growth driven by price hikes of +20%, end of the cycle. So multiples have to take into account -20-30% cut in earnings, hence 11x EBITDA currently paid for Accor, Whitbread, Intercontinental., Marriott, Hilton

Ecommerce

Chinese Internet

Metaverse

Funko?

ARK angel

Payments

Little Prince