WM 1 July 2022

 Quotes

Don't worry, be happy

now = won

Lessons & Thoughts

50D moving averages rule in the absence of new news

Have you seen this series 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34 etc or these proportions 1.62 / 0.62?

Remember this one?

Let's see how it works

Another favourite name is testing a bearish triangle

Option greeks

Long cycles

Creativity

Creativity = thinking outside the box. 

Slow multitasking allows for keeping your attention stimulated and fresh. Mixing and matching ideas together is a recipe for new ideas.

Put original idea outside its original context and give it a different perspective. Switch topics, switch context. To avoid being stuck and blocked by stress, use diversity as the spice of life. You 

 can have all things. Why exclude? Use card boxes and put all your idea tools in it.

To do lists

Trading rules

Jim Simons rules

Be guided by beauty, surround yourself with the best, don't run with the pack, don't give up easily, give yourself a chance to get where you're going and hope for good luck

Activist shortsellers

Adapt or die

In the name of the father

Macro news

Money

Fed breaks something before it starts pivoting

Property rights & geopolitics

 The world is turning Argentinian. Latam has turned leftist (from Chile to Colombia). Next to fall is Brazil. Inflation anyone? Even France's new elected Macron is giving away money in the form of food subsidies  he does not have to pay for social peace.

Meanwhile, in the US, the Supreme Court made two decisions that reminds the world that hard right is rising too: be it with its anti abortion ruling or its ruling baring the EPA to regulate Co2 emissions.

GDP

Can the consumer feel more depressed?

Inflation

Inflation is the product of governments, throwing good money after bad. So how productivity is negatively correlated to government spending

Who's afraid of inflation?

Precious metals not so precious

Crypto

FX

USD about to roll over? Testing, testing...

Catalyst? Interest rates differential.

USD and EM and SPX

Strong currency (CHF) vs weak currency (EUR)

Fixed income

Global debt now >USD 300tn

Base rates

Yield and eco

Yield and duration

Bond market

30Y-2Y

High yield

Real estate

Equities

Bear markets

Analogs

Testing long term averages

Some are concerned that this rally may not last

It's the economy stupid

Everybody is bearish

    

Oversold

The sell side is late

Bad start

  

Volatile

But tomorrow will be better

Ok, but beware that we are in a bear market and these things can take time

And is a bubble bursting

Range of odds

Valuation

Valuation corrected, now it's earnings turn

    

Don't look back, look forward

Who owns equities?

Commodities

First precious metals, then industrial metals, then agri, then oil

So let's look at the commodities

Investors sell their commodities

No surprise there

Some good news for the world economy down the line

Energy

Houston we have got a problem

Agri

Industrial materials

Dr Copper

Delivery times

Themes, Sectors & Stock news

As long bond yields stop rising and inflation about to recede

Defensive vs Cyclicals

TIPS

Sectors

Semi con Micron warns of very poor H2 (USD 2,4bn miss on Q4 revenue outlook)    

When no news is bad news: no hello from Elon on tweeter. El-off 

Hey Mickey you're so fine, hey Mickey

Bankruptcy looming for German utility

Recessions are not good for holders of credit risk

Vertical farms

Supply & demand at work. In the US, nursery are a legal nightmare, while in Italy the ageing pop means nursing homes are better growth businesses than nurseries