WM 28 May 2022

 Quotes

Anti-fragile

On petty thieves

Lessons & Thoughts

Fool moons and full moon

The power of the sun in your hands

Hot air balloons

Seth Klarman

Candelsticks

Fads/bubbles going bust: when it s gone it is gone forever

S curve and Mills Curve

Elliott Wave

Average up, not down

See below

Futures and underlying: another form of leverage

Superperf stocks

10 w averages direction is more powerful than fluctuations around it

Macro news

Money

    

Why did Biden say the US would intervene in Taiwan (key supplier of semi con to the world): after Ukraine, Taiwan?

China slow down: Covid lock downs and post bubble "soft landing"

Economic data

End of Globalisation

Growth slowing down

OECD lead indicator

US 

Can the US consumer feel worse?

What worries the world

Where are my savings gone?

Where my disposal income gone?

Rolex indicator

Strippers' indicator

GDI vs GDP

CEO confidence

China

Inflation

Gold and precious metals

Crypto

FX

Dollar strength climax?

JPY to bounce?

Fixed income

MOVE (vol index for bonds) says calm  after the storm

Top for 10y fixed income

IG spreads

Real estate

Reason to worry about housing: yields rising and economic downturn ahead

Bubble to burst

China USD 55tn housing market

Equities

-21% = impact of yield only, not the future earnings contraction

Difference between derated market followed by or not followed by recession

SPX price = PE x EPS

A lot of fear: buy signal

Sentiment vs exposure (too much hope?)

Template 2022

Analogs?

We are in a bear market

Bear market rallies can be nice

Conditions are ripe for a bounce

Bounce not guaranteed 

But rule of large numbers say

Shorting in a bear market is not as easy as you think

Retracement

AD and breadth says time for a trade

Cash cash baby

Margin

Valuation: PE ok but margins still too high

Growth

SPX vs QQQ

Fund flows are back

6% week

Volatility

    

Hedge funds no good

Commodities

US shale

Uranium

Copper

  

Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Defensive Value to Defensive growth

    

Consumer staples vs discretionary

Pricing power works in inflationary markets

Who needs a phone boot?

When you can have a sex robot?

AARK (fallen) angel?

Asset management under pressure

Hotels

Transport

Semi con solidation or just EPS enhancing deal ahead of correction?

Unicorns

No amo?

Alphabet's PE

Amazon sales

Internet valuations

Cloud plays

E-commerce

Mobile phones

Defence & Space

New FAANGs