WM 22 January 2022

 Quotes

On a lighter note, for those keen to understand the current geopolitical situation

Lessons & Thoughts

Trading plan

In trading, the only thing you can control is yourself

Wedge pattern

Sizing

What is know is worthless

Macro news

Money

But not if liquidity out

Money growth minus nominal GDP growth = PE change

This is why global PMI (growth) drives yields

Gold & Precious metals?

Cryptos: liquidity drying up

FX

Fixed income

Yield curve

Negative yielding bonds in retreat

The Fed is behind the (yield) curve

That being said

Reminiscence of 1994

Two yield curves = ST rates = inflation. LT rates = growth => Stagflation 

Growth is slowing: inflation may have peaked

Real estate

Meanwhile in China

Equities

Are you not entertained

Testing key support levels

-5% is a dip (happens 4x / year), -10%+ is a correction (every 1.5 years) , -20%+ is a bear market (every 4 years), -35-50%+ is a depression (every 10-20y)

Yields and equities

Breadth

    

When spot Vix above forward Vix (inversion), buy

Seasonality

Commodities

Oil

Agri commodities have broken trend line

Dr Copper wants to go up and testing important resistance. Bullish when considering weaker growth and Chinese situation?

Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Risk off= small caps lead big caps…

And if it was just a matter of liquidity?

Value > Growth

Financials love volatility + higher rates

Prepare for war

Wealth inequality & averages

Global GDP heading towards USD 100tn from USD 92tn in 2021

Microsoft buys Activision : big manoeuvres starting for control of the Metaverse?

JPM spend on Fintech