WM 18 December 2021

Quotes

On imagination

On Wisdom

Wisdom is the conqueror of fortune

On freedom

Lessons & Thoughts

The power of compounding

Entrepreneur's success factors: 

42% is timing, 32% team/execution 28% idea, 24% biz model and 14% funding

Hero with a thousand faces

All myths follow the same patter of a hero departing on an adventure, facing adversity and pain and overcoming it then returning home changed and sharing its new learned wisdom with community. Power of story = pain equals reflection equals growth

Yu Kai Chou Actionable Gamification shows what are the key trigger points to motivation

1. Epic meaning & calling

2. Development & accomplishment ("growth")

3. Creativity and feedback (be yourself)

4. Ownership and possession

5. Social pressures and relatedness

6. Scarcity & Impatience

7. Unpredictability & Curiosity

8. Loss & Avoidance

Macro news

Tappering

Velocity of money

It took USD 186tn of debt over the last 20 years to create USD 40tn of GDP worldwide. The velocity of money has collapsed.

Fixed income

Remember Dalio's four ways of dealing with debt crises:

1. Austerity

2. Debt default / restructuring

3. Printing money

4. Transfer of wealth from haves to have nots

Equities

Bubble trouble

Seasonality skewed to last weeks of the year

After bounce sell

No absolute profit growth (EPS from buy backs)

Commodities

Europe's nat gas and Co2 prices surge: winter's coming

    

Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Gene editing & diagnostics

Semis

There is a cyclical view (bearish) and there is a secular view (bullish). Both concern the automobile sector. There are 100 semi conductors in one mobile phone. There are 2000 semi conductors in one electrical car. Growth of the semi conductor sector accelerated from 5% to 20% on the back of that shift. The industry was caught off guard by the surge. To make matters worse, big guns are no longer concentrating their investments in Asia following a US act asking for de-concentration of risk and trying to lower reliance on Taiwan.

Merry Christmas... We' ll resume our blog in 2022! So happy new year too.