WM 25 September 2021

Quotes

Lessons & Thoughts of the week

Character matters

It's not personal. 

Resilience

Stories: weapons of mass distraction

Never stop asking questions and listen: you do not need to have all the answers to be smart

The number of billionaires reached 3000 for the first time last year. 
The 1% club (wealth > USD 2.5m of wealth) controls 45.8% of global wealth

How do you make money now that money tide recedes? Answer = special sits (M&A, Capital restructuring, Spin offs, Vol arbitrage etc) or do nothing and stick to your quality assets for the long term

Sequoia Investment Checklist

Did Gru make it?

Carved from semi-precious green stone, jade elephants are considered symbols of good fortune that bring many positive characteristics or powers. Nature bounty at its best

The fourth turning

Macro news

Money

Covid peak

How does Evergrande compare?

Contagion?

FX

Strong dollar cometh

CNY demand vs Chinese tech stocks 

AUD has followed iron ore collapse

Timing banning bitcoin in China is no coincidence, China needs dollars

Want Gold? No I need dollar

Fixed Income

Negative real yields on US High Yield (Junk) bonds now affecting 85% of total. How can you have a proper allocation of capital if bad companies can get funding

Equities

S&P500 gap down, tested support, then bounced, all good then?

Pavlovian reflexes

Bears don't cry?

Hang on bear, the conditions are bearish

EM are already in bear market territory

Signs that the times are changing. 

Seasonal weakness says aint over til it's over

Volumes and flow

Something unique happened this week: TRIN massive jump. What is TRIN? TRIN = Advance/Decline nbr of stocks ratio divided by Advance/Decline volume ratio

E-VIX-ion

Breadth says: not so good under the surface

Intra day low tick

S&P used to be correlated to consumer confidence, which is down.

Also remembers: equities bottom are V-shaped, but tops are more like an inverse U.  It took almost a year for the internet bubble to burst

    

Also real assets have never been so cheap versus equities and financial assets

Same for growth vs value

As safe as houses?

Money has found a home

Commodities

Breakfast anyone?

Transport costs

Have you bought your Christmas present yet?

Jobs

The world is upside down. Companies beg to find workers.

Where have the workers gone?

Speculating online?

Tax hikes coming

Margins at all time high just as tax and costs about to hit

People are feeling the pinch whatever the income bracket

More discussions on NatGas price surge ahead of winter and political reaction on electricity

GDP

CPI follows PPI

Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Ageing pop

Big caps

Wondering why luxury and fashion are best retail businesses

Online gambling theme:Draftking bids for Entain

Space theme

Battery theme. What do you need other than lithium?