MM 15 December 2020

 Quotes

Three elements of trust, according to the Harvard Business Review

1. Positive Relationships. Trust is in part based on the extent to which a leader is able to create positive relationships with other people and groups. To instill trust a leader must:

• Stay in touch on the issues and concerns of others.

• Balance results with concern for others.

• Generate cooperation between others.

• Resolve conflict with others.

• Give honest feedback in a helpful way.

2. Good Judgement/Expertise. Another factor in whether people trust a leader is the extent to which a leader is well-informed and knowledgeable. They must understand the technical aspects of the work as well as have a depth of experience. This means:

They use good judgement when making decisions.

• Others trust their ideas and opinions.

• Others seek after their opinions.

• Their knowledge and expertise make an important contribution to achieving results.

• Can anticipate and respond quickly to problems.

3. Consistency. The final element of trust is the extent to which leaders walk their talk and do what they say they will do. People rate a leader high in trust if they:

• Are a role model and set a good example.

• Walk the talk.

• Honor commitments and keep promises.

• Follow through on commitments.

• Are willing to go above and beyond what needs to be done.

Game theory and behavioral finance can be learned with simple coin tossing game

On bubbles

    

David Ricardo who knew a few things about competitive advantages talks about simple trading rules for the ages

Disruptive technology vs other form of technology adoption

Some basic probability concepts to understand finance

Ergodicity

Ready for the 4th industrial revolution?

Do you believe in responsible AI or are you a cynic?

Diogenes is the founder of the Cynic philosophy. He is often represented with his dog. Cycnic means dog like, in part because of their indifference of their shameless way of life and also because of their stubborn following of their precepts and discriminating instincts.

Markets & macro news

Liquidity flush

Plenty of liquidity but what about insolvency?

Japan 31 years later

US dollar 7 year cycles

Bitcoin and stock to flow model revisited: so far, so good

Better than gold

As yields are turning

    

As stocks send divergent signals

And continue to frustrate those who buy at the open and sell at the close…(the so called dumb money)

Are the bulls are losing patience?

Have stocks already reached climax?

In the long term, it is ok

M&A demand

Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Disney + was the answer closed entertainment parks and movie theatres

Nickel demand to be boosted by Electrical Vehicles growth

Energy turning?

Commodities testing trend line

Is yellow cake about to turn green?

Hindenburg omen? Hydrogen theme also in vogue

Plane makers looking at fuel cell technology to replace jet fuel over time. Germany investing EUR 9bn behind a series of project. The EU saying that the sector could boom from EUR 2bn today to EUR 140bn by 2030. McPhy is a supplier of Nikola.

Compare that with European IT growth

Or real estate. See the rents in Manhattan