MM 13 November 2020

 Quotes

“Peaks are a process in which confidence is tested over and over before investors ultimately concede that they were suffering from “hopeful delusion.” Peter Atwater

Time to revisit the Hirschmann cycle?

Simply put, the Hirschman cycle states that since the Industrial Revolution American society has regularly shifted between focus on private interest and public action. One example occurred in the 1960s when newly affluent Americans perhaps became dissatisfied with acquisition of goods and turned to political action.

Markets & Macro news

Meanwhile in Japan

Follow the money: where are Chinese savings and current account surpluses being invested, bearing in mind that banks are insolvent and capital flows are not free?

Current account surplus as % of GDP

The Chinese stock market is one option and now worth USD 8.1tn

Although the boom may be over in first tier cities, housing (valued at an estimated USD 78tn with average prices USD 2100/sqm) and infrastructure remain the main recipients of Chinese excess savings

And a massive bubble when gauged by affordability ratio

... and long term demographics

Themes, Sectors & Corporate news

Do you prefer a certain loss or an uncertain profit?

Soy bean speculators now testing peaks of 2012…